TR2012-062

Efficient Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification in Space Mission Dynamics


    •  Grover, P.; Sato, Y., "Efficient Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification in Space Mission Dynamics", AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, DOI: 10.2514/6.2012-5062, August 2012.
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      • @inproceedings{Grover2012aug,
      • author = {Grover, P. and Sato, Y.},
      • title = {Efficient Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification in Space Mission Dynamics},
      • booktitle = {AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference},
      • year = 2012,
      • month = aug,
      • doi = {10.2514/6.2012-5062},
      • url = {http://www.merl.com/publications/TR2012-062}
      • }
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  • Research Area:

    Dynamical Systems


The problem of efficient and accurate orbit estimation of space trajectories is discussed. For highly sensitive low-fuel trajectories designed to exploit the complex nonlinear dynamics of the three-body problem, it is vital to have accurate state estimation during maneuvers and ability to deal with irregular observation update times. For instance, in Halo-orbit insertion and station keeping maneuvers, state estimation errors can propagate quickly. In this paper, we combine an efficient probability propagation method with a homotopy-based posterior computation method. The resulting particle filter is highly accurate even in highly nonlinear regime with intermittent observations, and yet an order of magnitude or more efficient than a generic particle filter implementation.